May 16, 2026: Cuba cannot survive without oil imports, can’t afford to pay for those and, until recently, was entirely dependent on deliveries from Venezuela and Mexico of free or well below market price oil. Then the US ended Venezuelan oil deliveries by forcibly changing its government, and ended Mexican deliveries with sanctions threats. There were a few attempts by other countries to send below-market-price oil to Cuba which were stopped by similar threats. On the other hand, the US allowed a Russian tanker to deliver free oil and refined products in late April.

Cuba’s economy was already in dire straits when this happened and now seems about to collapse. The Cuban and American governments have been in shadowy talks for the past several months. Cuba agreed to admit teams of American FBI investigators and release some political prisoners. President Trump has recently become more forceful in his mentions of Cuba.

The US began hindering oil tankers heading to Cuba in early 2026, aiming at companies such as the Mexican state-owned Pemex and menacing the responsible countries with higher tariffs and other sanctions if they persisted. This is the first de facto blockade of Cuba since the Cuban Missile Crisis. In early 2026, Miguel Díaz-Canel, the First Secretary of the Cuban Communist Party, openly confirmed for the first time that his government was engaged in diplomatic talks with the Americans aimed at tackling the severe American sanctions on free fuel deliveries.

The Americans have maintained an embargo on Cuba since 1962. The severity of the embargo has varied over time, with a notable thaw in relations under recent Democratic Presidents. The impact of the embargo became particularly significant only after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc in 1991, who collectively supplied between 70 percent and 80 percent of Cuban imports. This led to an economic crisis and the start of the Special Period, which lasted until 2000. The crisis substantially improved in 1999 after Hugo Chávez was elected as president of Venezuela, and began to support the country with free oil shipments. In return, Cuba sent doctors and security personnel to Venezuela.

This changed with President Trump’s second term. In early 2025 the US government substantially increased its economic sanctions against Cuba, orienting it around what it calls a total pressure or maximum pressure strategy.

Cuba's economy is dependent on foreign oil with most historically imported from Venezuela and Mexico. Recent but insistent issues with Cuba's economy and electrical grid triggered 2024–2026 protests and 2024–2026 Cuban blackouts. At the end of 2025, as part of the acceleration that ended with the American intervention in Venezuela, the United States seized tankers with Venezuelan oil destined for Cuba and declared a temporary blockade on exports of Venezuelan oil.

After the Venezuela intervention by the Americans that led to the capture of incumbent Venezuelan president Maduro, America threatened potential military action towards multiple territories like Greenland, Colombia, Iran, and Cuba. In early 2026, Executive Order 14380 was signed and entered into force on 30 January, declaring a national emergency in America and authorizing the imposition of further tariffs on imports into America from countries that directly or indirectly supply oil to Cuba. America confirmed that government change in Cuba is a goal by the end of the year, asking the government of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Miguel Díaz-Canel to make a deal before it's too late.

According to the United Nations Human Rights Office, the blockade and ensuing fuel shortage have threatened Cuba's food supply and upset the country's water systems and hospitals. The fuel shortage has prevented the harvesting of crops and undermined efforts toward food autonomy. The lack of fuel has also hampered the UN World Food Program relief efforts following Hurricane Melissa. In response, the Cuban government has closed schools and universities and limited public transport. Garbage has accumulated throughout Havana and other cities due to the lack of fuel for trash trucks.

Cuba experienced its lowest ever temperature of 0 ° Centigrade on 3 February as measured at a weather station in Matanzas Province. On 4 February, the eastern provinces of Guantánamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguín and Granma suffered a total blackout, while the western part of the island and Havana suffered serious difficulties with electricity. On 4 March, a shutdown of the Antonio Guiteras Power Plant resulted in power outages for millions of Cubans in the western part of the country. On 16 March, Cuba's power grid collapsed leaving the country without power.

In early February, Cuba stated that it would not refuel other planes at airports due to a lack of fuel. Air Canada suspended flights to the country on the same day, while Rossiya and Nordwind did so two days later, all citing ongoing fuel shortages in the island as a reason.

A fire broke out at a key fuel processing plant during mid-February in Havana, intensifying the energy crisis further since the executive order of American on 29 January, which imposed an oil blockade. A large plume of smoke was seen rising above Havana Bay from the Nico López refinery on Friday, drawing the attention of the capital's residents before fading as fire crews fought to bring the disaster under control. Cuba's Ministry of Energy and Mines said the fire, which erupted in a warehouse at the refinery, was eventually quenched and that the cause is under investigation. There were no injuries and the fire did not spread to nearby areas, the ministry said in a post on social media. The ministry said the workday at the Nico Lopez Refinery continues with complete regularity. The location of the fire was close to where two oil tankers were moored in Havana's harbor.

On 14 February, it was announced that the Festival del Habano, an annual cigar festival, was called off due to the complex economic situation caused by the economic, commercial and financial blockade by the Americans In mid-February 2026, it was reported that many collection trucks had been left with empty fuel tanks, causing refuse to pile up on the streets of the capital, Havana, and other cities and towns. Only 44 of Havana's 106 rubbish trucks, approximately 41.5 percent of them, have been able to keep operating due to the fuel shortages so waste piles up on Havana's street corners. Canadian mining company Sherritt announced that it would pause operations at its mining facility in Moa.

On April 12, 2026, The CTC/Central Workers' Union of Cuba, its national unions, and the ANIR/National Association of Innovators and Rationalizers launched the official call for May 1, 2026, under the slogan The Homeland is Defended, with a distinctly warlike and anti-American tone that reflects the escalating tensions between Havana and the American capitol.

In late April 2026, Miguel Díaz-Canel celebrated this week as a historic milestone the fact that Cuban national crude can be refined, when in reality the Cabaiguán refinery has been processing that same oil since 2010, as acknowledged by the deputy director of CUPET during the April session of the CNI/National Council of Innovation. The announcement from the Cuban government revolves around a thermal conversion technology developed by the Oil Research Center, affiliated with the CUPET/Union Cuba Petróleo, to process the heavy crude from the northern oil belt, characterized by its high density, viscosity, and sulfur content.

After the ousting of Maduro, the Americans began increasing its pressure on Mexico to reduce its oil sales to Cuba with the American President threatening tariffs against any country supplying Cuba with oil. Mexico temporarily halted shipments of oil to Cuba in late January and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said that the decision to halt oil deliveries was a sovereign decision. In early 2026, Mexico sent two ships of humanitarian aid to Cuba to help alleviate the impacts of the American embargo.

The government of Nicaragua cancelled visa-free travel for Cuban citizens in early 2026. This border was a frequent route to escape Cuba, used by thousands of migrants since its implementation in November 2021 following the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2021 Cuban protests. It is unclear if the measure was a direct request from the American government but it is part of a series of concessions made by the Nicaraguan President.

In early February, the Guatemalan health ministry announced it would begin a phased withdrawal of the Cuban Medical Brigade. The decision was linked to pressure from the Americans, who called the Cuban medical mission forced labor. Income earned by doctors serving in foreign countries is an important source of revenue for the Cuban government. In February, Honduras announced that it was ending the Cuban medical mission. The Bahamas, Antigua, Barbuda and Grenada have also said they would reduce use of Cuban healthcare workers.

An American diplomat pressured the government of Calabria to end their reliance on Cuban medical staff. The President of Calabria said that Cuban doctors were necessary to keep hospitals and emergency rooms open in the area, but that he would consider alternatives to hiring more Cuban doctors. Occhiuto denied the American argument that the program was human trafficking.

In late February, the Americans produced a license allowing companies to resell Venezuelan oil to Cuba's private sector at market prices. The American Treasury Department indicated that the exchange must support the Cuban people, including the private sector.

In early March 2026, Ecuador expelled Cuban Ambassador Basilio Gutierrez and his staff, declaring them persona non grata. No reason was provided for the expulsion.

On 30 March, a Russian oil tanker carrying 100,000 tons of crude oil arrived in Havana. The Russian shipment could be converted into 250,000 barrels of diesel which could cover Cuban energy demands for nearly two weeks. The Guardian argued that the docking of the Russian tanker signals greater American flexibility in the ability of Cuba to purchase oil from abroad.

In early February, the Americans said that they were negotiating with the highest people in Cuba. However, an internet news site reported that there were no high-level negotiations occurring between America and Cuba. In late February, an American newspaper reported that the Americans had been speaking to former First Secretary Raúl of Cuba's grandson, who was not a senior leader of the Cuban Communist Party. The next day, Americans again claimed to be negotiating with the Cuban government saying that America could have a friendly takeover of Cuba. In a March address on Cuban television, the First Secretary confirmed that negotiations with the Americans were taking place.

In March 2026, the Cuban government announced that it would release 51 political prisoners in the coming days. The move was described as being taken in a spirit of goodwill and followed diplomatic engagement with the Papacy, which has been involved in discussions with Cuban authorities. The government stated that the prisoners had served a significant portion of their sentences and demonstrated good conduct.

Initially, First Secretary of the Cuban Communist Party condemned American imperialism, and called on people to prepare for a war of the entire nation, while organizing state-sponsored demonstrations against the American oil blockade. In early February, he declared that Cuba is ready for a talk with the Americans on every topic without prerequisites, while rejecting negotiations on cases that he viewed as internal Cuban affairs.

In early February, reporters conducted interviews with various Cuban dissidents, including José Daniel Ferrer, Manuel Cuesta Morúa, and María Payá Acevedo. Their reactions were a mix of hope and warning against manipulations, including views that the Cuban government could cease talks when it stabilizes itself.

Argentine President Milei supported the Americans and condemned the Cuban government for authoritarianism. Brazil’s President condemned the American fuel blockade and called for humanitarian help for Cubans. Canada’s Foreign Minister announced C$8 million in funding to expand food and nutrition programs in Cuba in response to the humanitarian crisis. She later announced an additional C$5.5 million in international assistance in response to the humanitarian crisis.

Chile’s outgoing president called the blockade criminal and inhumane, saying that nothing justifies the harm being done to boys, girls, and innocent citizens. The incoming Chilean president in turn disagreed with his predecessor's decision to send humanitarian aid, claiming that it ultimately benefits a dictatorship.

China’s Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared that China firmly supports Cuba in safeguarding its national sovereignty and security, opposes foreign interference and will always provide support and help to the Cuban side to the best of its ability. The General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party approved aid for Cuba of financial assistance valued at 80 million dollars and a donation of 60,000 tons of rice.

Russian President Vladimir Putin condemned American actions and claimed that Russia will continue to send oil to Cuba despite the threats of blockade.

The United Nations Secretary-General stated he is extremely concerned about the humanitarian situation in Cuba, which will worsen, or even collapse, if the country's oil needs are not met. UN experts have condemned the executive order issued by the American administration, describing the imposition of a fuel blockade on Cuba as a serious violation of international law and a grave threat to a democratic and equitable international order.

In early 2026, leftist activists announced plans for a Nuestra América Convoy, which would attempt to break the American blockade and provide humanitarian aid to Cuba during the crisis. The flotilla is organized by Progressive International and contains members of the Global Sumud Flotilla that had attempted to break the Israeli blockade of the Gaza Strip.

Cuba’s communist government has no bargaining power. The only way for it to survive in the short run is to do whatever the American government wants in exchange for dribbles of free oil. Both governments face the certainty of Cuba’s collapse into mass starvation and epidemics if they delay a American takeover. That is up to the American President alone.