May 23, 2026: Russia’s war effort in Ukraine is ruining the Russian economy. Increasing evidence indicates that Russia’s war against Ukraine is turning to Russia’s disadvantage. This is exhibited not only in the theater of war, but also in the state of the Russian economy. A growing number of independent sociologists observe that the Russian President’s popularity ratings are falling amid internal problems and foreign policy failures. The Russian government’s policies of blocking messaging apps and imposing internet shutdowns are adding to this decline. Russians are especially alarmed by the government's unwillingness to alter course and reliance on repression of any manifestation of dissent. This has drawn condemnation even from serious groups within the elite, including staunch supporters of the war.

Russian internet portal Military Review, which is close to the Russian Ministry of Defense, published an article in mid-April about reliance on imported CPU chips and the unlikelihood of creating a sovereign internet. The article has since been taken down from the portal. The article argues that it is impossible to create a sovereign internet in a country where the entire cycle of computer manufacturing and AI/Artificial Intelligence development is completely dependent on foreign producers. This includes the design and production of microchips, neural network architecture, training datasets, and infrastructure.

All Russian supercomputers featured in the top 500 list are built on NVIDIA and AMD platforms. Taiwan’s TSMC manufactured the Elbrus and Baikal processors. After 2022, TSMC ceased operations. Russia lacks the lithography capabilities to produce even 28-nanometer chips, let alone the 7 or 5 nanometer nodes upon which modern AI relies. Creating one’s own AI without drawing on global scientific advancements is impossible. Russia is itself, however, cutting off its access to such advancements by designating leading Western universities as unsuitable organizations.

Ultra-conservative Russian television channel Tsargrad also unexpectedly came out in favor of internet freedom. It noted that the accelerated creation of digital sovereignty, under the leadership of the Ministry of Digital Development, has already led to alarming consequences, ranging from technological dependence on Chinese components to panic within the banking sector. The Russian government appears to be ignoring these signals as it continues its assault on internet freedom. Earlier this year, the Russian Ministry of Digital Development began to develop proposals to restrict Internet provider licenses, which will lead to the exit from the market of the few telecom operators at the municipal and regional levels. The Association of Regional Small Telecom Operators has already protested these programs, sending a formal appeal to the Russian leader, the Prime Minister, and the Russian Prosecutor General.

Independent media reports that sources within the Presidential Administration, speaking anonymously, admit that the security services’ actions to block the Internet are shunned. This pertains not only to practical hassles, but also to the outlook for upcoming elections. The restrictions are leading to a decline in the popularity of the Russian President's United Russia party, even though the responsibility for election results lies with government political strategists. Some of these strategists do not support the blockages and continue to operate on Telegram. Neither deputies nor the government officials, however, will openly oppose Russia’s FSB/Federal Security Service. The emerging situation clearly refines the conflict between the security services and Russia’s Presidential Administration.

Telegram channels linked to the latter openly note that economic repression and labor market contraction reinforce protest sentiment among a population normally loyal to the government. Independent journalists also note this tendency. An article from the independent Verstka portal says that anxiety and annoyance are growing among the core electorate of United Russia, namely the elderly, women over 55, low-income citizens, and the residents of small towns. Political strategists acknowledge these difficulties, although for the time being do not consider them critical.

Increased internet restrictions at a time when support for the Russian government is weakening could lead to more outward protests for ending Russia’s sustained war against Ukraine and uncertainty across Russia. An American university professor suggests the primary factors for the development of post-war Russia are maintaining internal stability and the possibility of achieving the war’s stated objectives, with the occupation of regions of Ukraine and the limitation of its sovereignty. Analyzing various combinations of these factors, the professor concludes that a serious transformation of the Russian government is likely in just one of four scenarios, in which it fails to achieve its military objectives, leading to internal instability. Otherwise, the Russian regime will remain a repressive dictatorship. Should the military objectives not be achieved or should serious fissures emerge within the elites, Russia will be forced, at the very least, to seek to normalize its relations with Western countries.

Russian society and the elite’s attitudes depend on the government’s success in selling the termination of hostilities against Ukraine as a victory. It is, however, quite difficult to predict how this would be accomplished. Internal stability and an intensification of elite infighting following the end of the war appears to be the most likely scenario. Disagreements within Russia among the FSB, the military, radical patriots, big business, and Russian technocrats are growing, creating the very internal unpredictability which could disrupt the Russian government once the war ends.